100 reasons I'm better than you

A catalogue of the 100 reasons that I'm better than the readers of this. Maybe I won't be better than each of you for every reason, but I'm sure there'll be at least one reason why I'm specifically better than YOU

02 August, 2006

18. I understand what Pascal's Wager is all about

As usually framed, Pascal's Wager runs as follows:
If God exists and I believe in Him, I'll go to heaven (which is an infinitely good thing) as long as I act correctly on earth (which may be a finitely bad thing, as I'll have to abjure prostitutes and other forms of moral incontinency I might otherwise enjoy).
So if God doesn't exist, I'll exchange a finite cost for no return.
But if God does exist and I don't believe in Him, I'm infinitely worse off, because I'll either miss out on heaven, or end up in hell, which would be infinitely bad.
If we multiply the probability of God's existence by the reward for believing in Him, we find we still have an infinite benefit, whereas we only have finite risks and rewards if we don't believe in Him.
Thus, it's rational, as any student of statistics would tell you in a trice, to believe in God.
Keeping up so far?
Where my superiority is demonstrated is that you probably thought that was it: Pascal computes his expectations and then goes off and starts believing in God. But that isn't the deal here. What Pascal actually points out is that although he's shown that it would be rational to believe in God, on the basis of the expected reward, that's not enough. You still have to go to church and inculcate religious beliefs and practices, otherwise you're not being sincere, and that's what counts, rather than a rational choice to bet your life's path on the possible existence of a deity.
Now, of course, you know that. But you didn't use to, did you? And thus you'll always have understood the consequences of Pascal's wager for a shorter time than me.

3 Comments:

At 12:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

He, and you, missed one fundamental point - the deity you choose to believe in is one of an infinite set of potential deities. Therefore, there is a probability of 0 that you pick the right one to believe in, and are therefore always going to pick one who does not exist. Since this is as likely to annoy the one that does exist (if it does) as not believing in any (if not more so), with an even more negative result, you are better off not believing in any deity at all.

 
At 1:02 PM, Blogger Mr Cushtie said...

Kevin, I'm not impressed by that kind of scatty argument. Pace Descartes, one believes in a perfect God, and thus one can be assured of his existence by the fact that he is perfect (and one couldn't have an idea that was caused by something less perfect, and anyone who's read the Meditations can fill in the gaps here...). Furthermore, if there was more than one such perfect God, they wouldn't be perfect (since uniqueness is a good thing), and thus there can only be one deity. So it's not an infinite-horse race that Pascal is betting on, after all.

 
At 1:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I will paraphrase Bertie: Uniqueness is not a predicate.

My argument does not require said deities to necessarily have any particular properties - in particular perfection.

More importantly, what time for lunch tomorrow?

 

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